Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A9 0xa98a…1902 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,342 (+10%) realized +$2,344 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%66W / 40L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$71
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,185
other 40% +$1,248
crypto 1% −$124
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 12 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 25% -15.6%
≤90d 50 -13.7% -21.9% 70% 44% -10.6%
all 106 +10.8% +0.3% 62% 46% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 46% -0.1%
10% -9.3% 26% -9.6%
15% -18.1% 9% -18.4%
20% -26.1% 8% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$135 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$340
Realized+$2,344
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses66 / 40
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)106 / 110
History coverage174d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 81¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $238 +$12 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $211 +$39 +18%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $187 −$184 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $129 −$126 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 08 $212 −$62 -29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $104 +$196 +188%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $177 +$73 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $230 +$70 +31%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $241 +$59 +24%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $110 −$108 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? May 16 $314 +$86 +27%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $453 +$97 +21%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $318 +$82 +26%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $314 +$86 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $94 −$92 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $227 +$73 +32%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $163 +$37 +23%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $241 +$59 +24%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $49 +$1 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $89 +$1 +2%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar May 02 $171 +$29 +17%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $74 −$72 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $204 +$46 +23%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $177 +$23 +13%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $191 +$10 +5%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $230 −$229 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 20 $118 −$115 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $336 +$114 +34%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualif Apr 17 $353 +$47 +13%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $115 −$112 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 15 $120 +$29 +24%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 14 $304 +$48 +16%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 12 $410 +$39 +10%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 09 $187 +$18 +10%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 09 $192 +$66 +34%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $384 +$16 +4%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 04 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Apr 04 $449 +$54 +12%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Mar 31 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Mar 31 $172 +$28 +16%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 31 $332 +$18 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 82¢ $206 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $292 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $238 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $211 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $188 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 19d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 46¢ $187 19d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 21¢ $129 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 70¢ $212 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $104 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 70¢ $177 28d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina $111 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 31d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 35d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 76¢ $230 37d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 80¢ $241 40d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $110 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $149 40d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 43d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 43d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $314 43d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 43d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $453 47d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 79¢ $318 49d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 24¢ $123 49d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 78¢ $314 52d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $94 52d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 75¢ $227 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.11 · official $340.14 (match) · 201 history records