Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa986…abfa other 13 markets active 2d ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$218 (-34%) realized −$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$180
other 23% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 17% -54.5%
≤30d 6 -46.7% -51.8% 33% 17% -54.5%
≤90d 7 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 14% -87.3%
all 10 -32.7% -39.1% 50% 30% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 30% -41.5%
10% -45.0% 20% -47.1%
15% -50.3% 10% -52.2%
20% -55.1% 10% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$55 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage140d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 29 $222 −$222 -100%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $100 +$33 +33%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 08 $180 +$9 +5%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 25 $30 +$4 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 33d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 33d
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy BUY USA 95¢ $222 97d
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea SELL South Korea 100¢ $133 97d
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea BUY South Korea 75¢ $100 98d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia SELL Japan 100¢ $189 98d
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia BUY Japan 95¢ $180 98d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.84 · official $29.84 (match) · 23 history records