Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa985…ec96 crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-3%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%98W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$334
14 days−$334
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$589
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.0% -23.1% 57% 57% -29.3%
≤30d 15 -20.6% -28.2% 53% 53% -30.0%
≤90d 169 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 44% -17.4%
all 169 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 44% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -17.4%
10% -24.3% 36% -25.3%
15% -31.6% 29% -32.5%
20% -38.4% 22% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses98 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage85d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$68 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$93 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $67 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $106 +$68 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 11 $7 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 11 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $25 −$12 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 10 $13 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 10 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 10 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 09 $39 −$37 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 09 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 09 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 09 $22 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 09 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 09 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 09 $4 +$6 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 04 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 04 $12 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 04 $168 −$71 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 03 $67 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 03 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 03 $29 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $174 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $147 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 432 history records