Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa983…7ab4 crypto 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,063 (-12%) realized −$1,126 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%248W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day92.4pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$499
14 days−$489
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$271
crypto 16% −$104
other 10% −$42
world 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -22.1% -29.5% 39% 37% -25.8%
≤30d 326 -14.8% -23.0% 40% 38% -14.8%
≤90d 618 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 33% -14.7%
all 618 -10.2% -18.7% 40% 33% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 33% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 27% -22.9%
15% -33.6% 22% -30.3%
20% -40.1% 17% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$543
Realized−$1,126
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses248 / 370
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions50
Markets (closed)618 / 669
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day92.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $20 $46 +$25 (+123%)
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+83%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-9%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+66%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $24 +$19 (+363%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Katie Volynets 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 59¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Nikola Bartunkova 31¢ 100¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+220%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Zeynep Sonmez 58¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Hurkacz 52¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Under 40¢ 39¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 55¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$8 -27%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$15 +147%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 4m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams t BUY 40¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 48¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 67¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $542.85 · official $552.85 · 3500 history records