Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa980…30a1 sports 211 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$10,487 (+8%) realized +$10,585 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%103W / 105L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day83.9pace
Fees−$4,542est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days+$114
14 days−$1,545
30 days+$1,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,681
other 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+84.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +85.9% +68.2% 36% 31% -20.2%
≤30d 144 +147.9% +124.3% 50% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 208 +103.8% +84.4% 50% 36% -4.2%
all 208 +103.8% +84.4% 50% 36% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +84.4% 36% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here +66.7% 28% -13.4%
15% +50.6% 22% -21.8%
20% +35.8% 20% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late +175% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$150 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$10,585
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses103 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4,542
Open positions3
Markets (closed)208 / 211
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$642
Trades / day83.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $283 $222 −$62 (-22%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $24 +$16 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $67 −$66 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $35 −$34 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $107 −$18 -17%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$26 +725%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,020 $0 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $158 +$110 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,879 +$251 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,819 −$900 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $422 +$18 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $497 +$95 +19%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $450 +$30 +7%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$5 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $845 +$620 +73%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $720 −$297 -41%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $148 +$97 +66%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $76 −$26 -34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,038 +$68 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $135 +$10 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $649 +$655 +101%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $60 −$39 -65%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $115 −$89 -78%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $44 +$10 +22%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $132 +$1 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,365 +$193 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,206 +$282 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,975 +$12 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,875 +$239 +13%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,262 −$911 -40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $434 −$79 -18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $700 +$204 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,167 +$139 +12%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$27 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $39 3m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $24 18m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $18 31m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $59 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 34h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 2¢ $20 39h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 0¢ $0 39h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 2¢ $4 40h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 0¢ $10 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 4¢ $10 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 1¢ $6 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 1¢ $10 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 1¢ $10 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 2¢ $2 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 2¢ $6 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 3¢ $8 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Top Esports Challenger 3¢ $3 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 2¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.70 · official $221.70 (match) · 3500 history records