Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa97c…55b2 crypto 1424 markets active 1h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,914 (-4%) realized −$9,636 · open −$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%771W / 649L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$170
7 days−$711
14 days−$2,908
30 days−$2,637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$11,017
world 0% −$640
other 0% −$290
economics 0% −$90
politics 0% −$116
tech 0% −$70
culture 0% −$11
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.7% -3.5% 53% 53% -42.2%
≤30d 114 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 50% -26.3%
≤90d 373 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 50% -22.2%
all 1420 -7.5% -16.3% 54% 47% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 47% -14.1%
10% -24.4% 38% -22.3%
15% -31.7% 34% -29.8%
20% -38.4% 30% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$110 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$9,636
Unrealized−$278
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses771 / 649
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1420 / 1424
History coverage295d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$97 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET Jun 24 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $448 −$434 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $115 −$81 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$115 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$77 -75%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1,031 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $824 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$162 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 32h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $105 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $178 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $261 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $212 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $237 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $258 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.37 · official $22.37 (match) · 2872 history records