Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa97a…5d3a world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$20 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 20% −$34
sports 9% +$12
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 -8.5% -17.2% 24% 0% -10.8%
all 47 -3.6% -12.8% 21% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -11.0%
10% -21.2% 2% -19.5%
15% -28.8% 2% -27.3%
20% -35.8% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage263d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $67 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$3 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $7 −$5 -68%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 23 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 13 $35 −$28 -80%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $13 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 23 $24 +$16 +70%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $19 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $23 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $43 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $43 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $43 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.34 · official $30.34 (match) · 157 history records