Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa979…21cf crypto 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$233 (+2%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%399W / 24L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$31
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$24
sports 13% +$246
other 8% −$150
finance 5% +$8
world 1% +$91
politics 0% +$51
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -2.7% -11.9% 96% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 240 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 408 -4.2% -13.3% 94% 0% -20.0%
all 423 +0.0% -9.5% 94% 4% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -7.4%
10% -18.2% 3% -16.3%
15% -26.1% 3% -24.4%
20% -33.3% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$45 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses399 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage246d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 30 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 30 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET Jun 30 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 30 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET Jun 29 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 44h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 44h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.92 · official $32.00 (match) · 2277 history records