Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa975…42ee sports 1162 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,271 (-21%) realized −$5,243 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%575W / 577L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$66
14 days+$63
30 days−$2,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,667
other 12% −$351
economics 0% −$42
world 0% +$21
crypto 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +20.6% +9.1% 53% 53% +3.5%
≤30d 209 +1.4% -8.3% 52% 52% -47.3%
≤90d 1152 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 49% -20.6%
all 1152 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 49% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 49% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 45% -28.2%
15% -29.8% 38% -35.1%
20% -36.7% 30% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$5,243
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses575 / 577
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1152 / 1162
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 54¢ 34¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-36%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 92¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+41%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 54¢ 53¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-85%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 62¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 89¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 52¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 +$1 +55%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +53%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $13 +$20 +152%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$8 -38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 +$6 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $3 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3 +$2 +74%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $9 +$33 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$3 -11%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $17 +$11 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$30 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -80%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $4 14m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $2 14m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $2 20m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $3 24m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 62¢ $4 25m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $7 46m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $3 54m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $2 54m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $2 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $1 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $2 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $1 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $3 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $13 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 9h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 75¢ $6 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $2 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 10h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5) BUY New York Mets 39¢ $2 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.24 · official $160.56 (match) · 3500 history records