Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A9 0xa970…aa4a crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-21%) realized −$72 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$22
other 15% −$57
sports 10% −$18
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 40% -32.2%
≤30d 48 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 40% -32.2%
≤90d 48 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 40% -32.2%
all 48 -17.7% -25.6% 42% 40% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 40% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 35% -38.7%
15% -39.2% 27% -44.6%
20% -45.2% 25% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 24¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$15 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $43 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.64 · official $4.64 (match) · 117 history records