Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A9 0xa96d…1818 crypto 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%64W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$125
14 days−$608
30 days−$608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$772
sports 16% +$181
other 8% −$3
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-55.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -18.0% -25.8% 33% 31% +9.0%
≤30d 305 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 19% -34.8%
≤90d 305 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 19% -34.8%
all 305 -50.7% -55.4% 21% 19% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.4% 19% -34.8%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 17% -41.0%
15% -63.5% 14% -46.7%
20% -67.1% 12% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses64 / 241
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)305 / 307
History coverage13d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 33¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 34¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$24 +80%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $37 +$37 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$22 +88%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$18 +71%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$14 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$31 +203%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 +$31 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +242%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$14 +662%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$10 +203%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$23 +112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -66%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$13 +246%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$16 +156%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $6 +$9 +149%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 27m
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 94¢ $41 37m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $58 41m
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $16 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $14 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $48 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $43 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 2h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 60¢ $24 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 4h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $46 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.26 · official $30.61 · 773 history records