Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa96c…7a50 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$313 (+47%) realized +$317 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%15W / 3L

Drawdown4%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$193

7 days+$285

14 days+$310

30 days+$310

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+46.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+50.0%	+35.7%	86%	86%	+45.5%
≤30d	18	+61.4%	+46.0%	83%	83%	+46.0%
≤90d	18	+61.4%	+46.0%	83%	83%	+46.0%
all	18	+61.4%	+46.0%	83%	83%	+46.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+46.0%	83%	+46.0%
10%	+32.0%	78%	+32.1%
15%	+19.3%	72%	+19.3%
20%	+7.6%	50%	+7.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +61% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +59% → late +64% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$6 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×17.37 per $1 lost it wins $17.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$156

Realized+$317

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses15 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage8d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown4%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	58¢	50¢	$30	$26	−$4 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$91	+$44	+49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$105	+$74	+70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$41	+$30	+73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$46	+$33	+72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$13	+62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$30	+$31	+102%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30	+$13	+42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$40	+$21	+52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$24	+234%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$4	-78%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$23	+442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$21	+$6	+27%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$2	+36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	39¢	$20	22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$24	25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$30	41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$30	42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	45h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$20	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	98¢	$16	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$62	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$20	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	79¢	$20	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$61	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$34	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.12 · official $156.13 (match) · 56 history records