Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa96b…f25e other 6 markets active 11h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$168per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+5.1%	-4.9%	100%	0%	-4.9%
≤30d	1	+5.1%	-4.9%	100%	0%	-4.9%
≤90d	1	+5.1%	-4.9%	100%	0%	-4.9%
all	1	+5.1%	-4.9%	100%	0%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.9%	0%	-4.9%
10%	-14.0%	0%	-14.0%
15%	-22.3%	0%	-22.3%
20%	-29.9%	0%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$798

Realized+$9

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$168

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$305	$304	−$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$213	$214	+$1 (+0%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$144	$143	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$36	$37	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$190	+$10	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$195	11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$24	11h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$37	11h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	72¢	$145	11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$256	11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$57	11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	95¢	$190	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.74 · official $797.74 (match) · 9 history records