Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa96a…dd9f world 34 markets active 4d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-7%) realized +$53 · open −$167
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$116
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$247
sports 20% −$314
finance 5% −$30
other 5% −$11
politics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +42.0% +28.5% 75% 75% +82.2%
≤90d 14 -2.7% -12.0% 64% 50% -2.0%
all 16 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 44% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 44% -5.1%
10% -30.4% 38% -14.2%
15% -37.1% 25% -22.5%
20% -43.3% 25% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$63 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)16 / 34
History coverage96d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $199 $176 −$23 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 82¢ $98 $132 +$34 (+35%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $98 $92 −$6 (-6%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $40 $30 −$9 (-24%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $31 $20 −$11 (-35%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 92¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 30¢ 13¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 78¢ 46¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 32¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $214 +$136 +64%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $24 +$5 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $173 +$315 +182%
Will gas hit (High) $4.15 by April 30? Apr 09 $3 +$1 +24%
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $71 −$71 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $315 −$315 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $15 +$11 +72%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 01 $25 +$17 +69%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $54 6d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $10 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 18d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 21d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $66 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $98 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $99 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $214 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $489 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 24¢ $12 59d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 69d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 69d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.57 · official $567.57 (match) · 161 history records