Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa969…be4a crypto 1304 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,850 (+5%) realized +$2,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%1132W / 172L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day39.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$610
14 days+$789
30 days+$1,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,829
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +23.1% +11.4% 91% 39% -0.3%
≤30d 737 +6.2% -3.9% 89% 20% -6.5%
≤90d 1304 +9.2% -1.2% 87% 23% -6.6%
all 1304 +9.2% -1.2% 87% 23% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 23% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 15% -15.5%
15% -19.3% 11% -23.7%
20% -27.2% 9% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1132 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1304 / 1304
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day39.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1304 Trades
no open positions (123 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$30 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$29 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$18 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 +$37 +285%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $55 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$33 +335%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$43 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$4 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$11 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$2 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $66 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $7 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $35 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records