Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa965…151e crypto 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,038 (-4%) realized −$979 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%138W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$1,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,010
other 1% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 148 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 3% -13.2%
≤90d 148 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 3% -13.2%
all 148 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 3% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -13.2%
10% -21.9% 1% -21.5%
15% -29.4% 1% -29.1%
20% -36.3% 1% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$145 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$979
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses138 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage23d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $351 $293 −$59 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $342 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $341 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $340 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $340 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $339 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $338 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $122 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 03 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $119 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $116 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $116 −$115 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 03 $113 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $183 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 03 $181 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $179 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $178 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $175 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $173 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 03 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 03 $163 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 03 $161 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $159 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $158 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $142 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $136 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $128 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $123 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 03 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $118 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 03 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 03 $113 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 03 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 03 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 03 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 03 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 03 $121 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 03 $118 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 02 $126 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $342 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $341 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $340 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $340 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $339 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $338 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $359 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $128 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $122 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $121 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $119 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $116 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $114 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $113 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $116 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $114 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $113 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $183 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $181 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $179 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $178 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $175 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $173 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $170 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $169 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $163 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $161 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $159 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $158 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.74 · official $292.74 (match) · 293 history records