Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa960…0606 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$77 (-4%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$21
14 days−$66
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$201
sports 44% −$321
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -18.5% -26.2% 43% 43% -11.2%
≤30d 36 -24.8% -32.0% 42% 42% -15.6%
≤90d 36 -24.8% -32.0% 42% 42% -15.6%
all 36 -24.8% -32.0% 42% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 42% -15.6%
10% -38.5% 33% -23.7%
15% -44.4% 28% -31.1%
20% -49.9% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage23d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 28? No 44¢ 44¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 28? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $404 −$5 -1%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $10 −$9 -84%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $20 −$17 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $50 +$9 +17%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $135 −$51 -38%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $40 −$21 -53%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $18 −$17 -94%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $23 +$27 +119%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$18 +59%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 24 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 +$22 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $88 +$12 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $59 −$3 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $110 −$41 -37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $75 +$25 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$24 +31%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $56 −$44 -79%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 11 $62 +$38 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 44¢ $22 24m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 44¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 44¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 44¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 44¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 45¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $76 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Deep Cross Gaming 1¢ $2 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 6¢ $10 3h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 23¢ $10 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 5h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 9¢ $4 6h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 5¢ $5 7h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 7h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $20 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL C9 100¢ $64 21h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY C9 78¢ $50 22h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 SELL DK 20¢ $20 22h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 39¢ $19 22h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 81¢ $40 23h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 84¢ $84 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.84 · official $58.84 (match) · 100 history records