Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A9 0xa956…666f other 237 markets active 3h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,299 (-7%) realized −$5,294 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%107W / 119L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$118
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$3,067
crypto 17% −$1,087
economics 7% −$858
finance 1% −$286
sports 1% +$74
tech 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -29.5% -36.2% 20% 20% -27.8%
≤30d 19 -44.3% -49.6% 16% 16% -31.4%
≤90d 89 -37.8% -43.8% 38% 29% -42.3%
all 226 -18.7% -26.4% 47% 30% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 30% -15.9%
10% -33.5% 19% -24.0%
15% -39.9% 13% -31.3%
20% -45.8% 9% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$95 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized−$5,294
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses107 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)226 / 237
History coverage230d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $46 $60 +$14 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $49 $56 +$7 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$59 +58%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $71 −$71 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$133 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 24 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 19 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Apr 15 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Apr 15 $104 −$46 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Apr 15 $110 +$147 +133%
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on March 10? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 9-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 13-19? Apr 15 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Apr 15 $200 −$148 -74%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2026? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 27? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Apr 15 $501 +$15 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 15 $164 −$98 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Apr 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 70¢ $71 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 66¢ $101 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes $9 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 5d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $9 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $21 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 8d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $511.75 · official $511.21 (match) · 1096 history records