Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa956…28f4 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$50 (+4%) realized +$40 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$228per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 235d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+12.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+35.3%	+22.4%	100%	50%	-2.0%
≤30d	2	+35.3%	+22.4%	100%	50%	-2.0%
≤90d	2	+35.3%	+22.4%	100%	50%	-2.0%
all	3	+24.0%	+12.2%	100%	33%	-5.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.2%	33%	-5.3%
10%	+1.4%	33%	-14.3%
15%	-8.4%	33%	-22.6%
20%	-17.4%	33%	-30.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage

Net worth$42

Realized+$40

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage235d

Avg bet$228

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	60¢	80¢	$32	$42	+$10 (+32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$20	+$13	+64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$500	+$30	+6%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Oct 28	$556	+$7	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$32	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14	BUY	9¢	$31	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$530	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	94¢	$500	6d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	SELL Yes	79¢	$563	234d
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	BUY Yes	78¢	$556	234d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.40 · official $41.87 (match) · 8 history records