Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa952…5ca1 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 730d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,508 (-6%) realized −$2,394 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$973per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$490
14 days−$490
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$2,360
world 17% +$984
tech 10% −$1,700
crypto 10% +$368
culture 6% +$211
politics 6% −$294
sports 3% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -29.5% -36.2% 38% 38% -43.3%
≤30d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 33% -13.1%
≤90d 21 -34.7% -41.0% 38% 33% -34.5%
all 36 -13.3% -21.6% 61% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 44% -15.2%
10% -29.1% 25% -23.3%
15% -36.0% 14% -30.7%
20% -42.2% 11% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,015) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$500 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

730d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$2,394
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage730d
Avg bet$973
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $149 $156 +$7 (+5%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $125 $3 −$121 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $123 −$121 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $109 +$101 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $224 −$221 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $74 −$73 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $197 +$103 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $142 +$169 +119%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $402 −$400 -99%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $596 −$191 -32%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 03 $1,275 −$25 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2,888 +$265 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,350 +$150 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2,549 +$591 +23%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 28 $1,028 +$472 +46%
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $405 +$95 +24%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Apr 01 $909 −$909 -100%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Apr 01 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? Apr 01 $3,180 −$2,310 -73%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during the debate? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $2,965 +$232 +8%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $400 +$100 +25%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $2,114 +$111 +5%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jan 01 $169 +$21 +12%
Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $696 +$85 +12%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $871 +$97 +11%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 01 $2,015 +$235 +12%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 01 $3,238 +$772 +24%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $1,380 +$120 +9%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? Dec 11 $2,675 +$343 +13%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $1,879 +$370 +20%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $105 −$36 -34%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 18 $939 +$36 +4%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Oct 22 $825 +$59 +7%
Trump and Biden shake hands at first debate? Jun 28 $50 +$61 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $151 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $59 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $64 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $224 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-2 BUY 33¢ $36 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $74 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 54¢ $113 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $109 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $91 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 5d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $308 17d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $97 23d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 84¢ $1,250 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3,152 24d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $1,275 50d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $2,048 51d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 90¢ $1,350 57d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $840 60d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 62d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 62d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $280 63d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 63d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $122 65d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 68¢ $162 80d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 68¢ $669 80d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.05 · official $159.05 (match) · 336 history records