Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa948…d8bd world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$1
other 9% −$9
politics 7% −$1
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -4.8% -13.9% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 31 -6.0% -15.0% 45% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -10.5%
10% -23.1% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage448d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 22¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $59 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $4 $0 +4%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 01 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $17 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 32¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $37 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.19 · official $15.12 (match) · 95 history records