Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa945…a389 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$9
other 26% −$4
politics 18% +$1
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% +$2
finance 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 17% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 11% -10.1%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 4% -9.8%
all 87 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage530d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 89¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $51 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $71 −$2 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $97 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $128 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $92 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $27 +$3 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $50 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $29 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $91 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $48 −$7 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $44 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $13 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $27 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $5 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $32 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $46 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $46 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $27 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.47 · official $43.46 (match) · 348 history records