Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa943…bcbe sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,151 (-7%) realized −$2,149 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate70%98W / 42L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$331
7 days+$213
14 days+$37
30 days−$1,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$2,154
other 35% +$63
world 1% −$205
weather 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.3% -0.2% 90% 90% -4.4%
≤30d 129 -7.7% -16.5% 72% 68% -14.8%
≤90d 140 -10.0% -18.6% 70% 66% -16.6%
all 140 -10.0% -18.6% 70% 66% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 66% -16.6%
10% -26.4% 45% -24.6%
15% -33.5% 18% -31.9%
20% -40.0% 6% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$193 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$2,149
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses98 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage33d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $379 $377 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $368 +$73 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $369 +$73 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $327 +$100 +31%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $347 +$84 +24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $344 +$89 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $391 +$67 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $337 +$92 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $386 +$71 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $513 −$511 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $373 +$74 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $280 +$86 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $266 −$262 -99%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $49 +$17 +34%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $143 +$82 +57%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $108 +$29 +27%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $143 −$142 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $110 +$35 +32%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $109 +$17 +16%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $110 +$17 +16%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $104 +$33 +32%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $109 +$37 +34%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $113 +$43 +38%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $73 +$20 +27%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $88 +$25 +29%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 01 $146 +$80 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $182 +$95 +52%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $161 +$34 +21%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $160 +$24 +15%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $162 +$32 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $146 +$70 +48%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $146 +$95 +65%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $102 +$21 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $95 +$23 +24%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $49 +$9 +18%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $97 +$21 +21%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $165 −$164 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $97 −$96 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $98 +$35 +36%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 +$15 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $96 +$22 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $239 +$100 +42%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Mathys Erhard May 30 $25 +$10 +42%
Paris Basketball vs. Strasbourg May 30 $147 +$21 +14%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Norway May 30 $470 +$51 +11%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lukas Neumayer May 30 $35 +$15 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $142 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $60 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $60 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $60 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $60 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $133 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $134 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $59 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $94 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $58 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $58 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $58 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $58 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $110 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $59 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $59 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $59 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $59 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $107 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $59 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $59 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $59 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $59 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.21 · official $377.21 (match) · 586 history records