Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A9 0xa942…cb02 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$420 (+11%) realized +$416 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$714
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +15.2% +4.2% 79% 55% +9.3%
≤30d 33 +15.2% +4.2% 79% 55% +9.3%
≤90d 33 +15.2% +4.2% 79% 55% +9.3%
all 33 +15.2% +4.2% 79% 55% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 55% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 42% -1.2%
15% -14.9% 27% -10.7%
20% -23.2% 18% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$72 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$416
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 0¢ 98¢ $0 $66 +$66 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 0¢ 2¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$54 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $74 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $179 −$60 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $136 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $149 +$78 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $117 +$19 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $146 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $107 +$34 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$27 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$28 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$13 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $133 −$90 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $56 −$50 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$94 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $211 +$598 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $35 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $71 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $157 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $29 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $213 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $145 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.69 · official $153.47 · 99 history records