Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa93a…b6e1 politics 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$219 (-0%) realized −$224 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,809per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$27
14 days−$212
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$126
other 42% −$101
world 4% −$9
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
sports 1% −$30
tech 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 +1.5% -8.2% 13% 9% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -3.1% -12.4% 9% 5% -9.7%
all 105 -3.1% -12.4% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,283) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$5 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,367
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,809
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,041 $1,040 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $251 $252 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 57¢ 62¢ $70 $75 +$6 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $5,813 −$6 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,700 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $881 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $267 +$4 +2%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,309 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,414 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,160 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,276 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,012 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $4,505 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $4,891 −$5 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,631 −$6 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $56 +$69 +124%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,899 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $712 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,562 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $2,299 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,937 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,283 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $2,116 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $4,251 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,975 −$5 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $67 +$65 +97%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $37 +$42 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $24 +$9 +40%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $2,468 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $3,159 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $4,287 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $4,797 −$7 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $1,689 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $3,323 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $3,239 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,129 15h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 19h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,163 21h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 22h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,194 24h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,196 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 42h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 44h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,397 47h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,399 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $879 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $881 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,138 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $267 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,055 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,412 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,414 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,187 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,188 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,164 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,166 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,324 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,325 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,324 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,325 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,367.22 · official $1,367.22 (match) · 364 history records