Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa93a…e867 crypto 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$507 (+2%) realized +$507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%321W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days+$201
14 days+$201
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$343
sports 1% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 43% -4.7%
≤30d 79 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 43% -4.7%
≤90d 485 -6.3% -15.2% 66% 39% -8.8%
all 485 -6.3% -15.2% 66% 39% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 39% -8.8%
10% -23.4% 18% -17.5%
15% -30.8% 9% -25.5%
20% -37.5% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses321 / 164
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage179d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $141 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $191 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $151 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $151 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $81 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $107 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $151 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $136 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$29 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1816 history records