Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa936…5d19 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-18%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$34
sports 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +38.1% +25.0% 50% 40% -31.2%
≤30d 10 +38.1% +25.0% 50% 40% -31.2%
≤90d 10 +38.1% +25.0% 50% 40% -31.2%
all 10 +38.1% +25.0% 50% 40% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 40% -31.2%
10% +13.0% 40% -37.8%
15% +2.1% 40% -43.8%
20% -7.9% 40% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 52m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 53m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 54m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $27 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.86 · official $27.86 (match) · 32 history records