Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa935…fdd2 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%10W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
politics 21% −$1
other 19% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 13 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 0% -10.3%
all 48 -0.7% -10.2% 21% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage300d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$2 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $72 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 19 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $34 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.84 · official $35.84 (match) · 160 history records