Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa92f…c678 weather 746 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$503 (-0%) realized −$417 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate95%709W / 36L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$10
14 days+$67
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$184
weather 37% −$268
tech 5% +$27
other 5% −$533
finance 0% +$17
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -1.2% -10.6% 90% 16% -9.2%
≤30d 228 -0.1% -9.6% 95% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 443 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 3% -9.4%
all 745 -0.6% -10.0% 95% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$72 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$417
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses709 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)745 / 746
History coverage243d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? No 86¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $122 −$30 -25%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $230? Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$18 +21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $61 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 10 $92 +$8 +8%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $84 +$16 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $86 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $100 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $69 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $55 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $12 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $34 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $58 32h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $100 34h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June SELL No 100¢ $12 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $92 40h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $49 40h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 91¢ $11 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 43h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 43h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $80 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $62 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.10 · official $0.10 (match) · 2516 history records