Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A9 0xa92c…ce44 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$121 (+7%) realized −$14 · open +$135
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate77%24W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$425now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$148
crypto 14% +$19
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 33% -5.2%
≤30d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 33% -5.2%
≤90d 18 +4.3% -5.6% 61% 33% -10.6%
all 31 +13.6% +2.8% 77% 55% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 55% -7.4%
10% -7.0% 32% -16.3%
15% -16.0% 19% -24.4%
20% -24.3% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$425
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$135
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses24 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage128d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 59¢ 100¢ $100 $169 +$69 (+69%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 60¢ 100¢ $100 $167 +$67 (+67%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Virtus.pro 58¢ 56¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $82 +$39 +48%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $102 −$21 -21%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $90 +$30 +33%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $102 +$22 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $50 +$29 +58%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $102 −$6 -6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$5 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$55 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $28 +$8 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 29 $140 −$57 -41%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $70 −$12 -17%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $41 +$15 +37%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Mar 18 $7 +$1 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $16 +$4 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $16 +$2 +15%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $32 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 09 $16 +$6 +37%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 03 $4 +$2 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $15 +$1 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $3 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $4 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 58¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $41 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 60¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 3h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 58¢ $41 15h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 15h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $41 15h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 76¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 76¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 77¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 80¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 81¢ $0 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe SELL Nigma Galaxy 75¢ $0 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 70¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 69¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $1 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 67¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $0 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 60¢ $9 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $2 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 59¢ $0 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 59¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.85 · official $424.85 (match) · 231 history records