Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:08:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa927…244e other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$2
world 31% −$1
politics 22% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.4% 29% 0% -9.9%
all 50 -1.1% -10.5% 28% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage281d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $56 +$5 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 02 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $42 $0 -1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 12 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 16m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 25m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 23h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $34 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $23 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $23 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 171 history records