Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa924…c79b
crypto · 405 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$31 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$31 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses313 / 90
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)403 / 405
History coverage139d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 403 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$12
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 71¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Boston Red Sox 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Under 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 +$8 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $10 +$11 +108%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $4 +$3 +74%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $7 +$8 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Jun 05 $14 +$10 +70%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $10 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $9 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $13 $0 +1%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 45% −$8
politics 19% −$2
other 13% −$1
sports 13% −$15
world 8% −$7
culture 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 81¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 26h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 26¢ $8 2d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $10 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 72¢ $10 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $0 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $10 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $10 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 45¢ $7 5d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 7d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 71¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.6% -24.6% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤30d 55 -3.0% -12.2% 82% 16% -11.0%
≤90d 241 -1.3% -10.7% 79% 5% -10.2%
all 403 -1.9% -11.2% 78% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.6% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.68 · official $14.68 (match) · 1987 history records