Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa921…f0ea weather 912 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$418 (-4%) realized −$420 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate78%743W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day122.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$306
7 days−$367
14 days−$393
30 days−$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$427
crypto 2% +$14
sports 1% −$6
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 657 -9.0% -17.6% 84% 8% -14.9%
≤30d 956 -8.2% -16.9% 78% 9% -14.6%
≤90d 956 -8.2% -16.9% 78% 9% -14.6%
all 956 -8.2% -16.9% 78% 9% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 9% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 5% -22.8%
15% -32.1% 3% -30.2%
20% -38.8% 2% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$420
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses743 / 213
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)956 / 912
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day122.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 0¢ 38¢ $0 $20 +$20 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 50¢ 60¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+21%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 32¢ 38¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 52¢ 21¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 75¢ 28¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-63%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 50¢ 18¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 19? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 19? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? Jun 16 $4 −$6 -149%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 18? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$6 -1160%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 20? Jun 16 $1 −$3 -571%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 24? Jun 16 $0 −$4 -962%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17? Jun 16 $1 −$7 -1140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 19? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 16 $1 −$5 -623%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20? Jun 16 $1 −$4 -503%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 19? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 20? Jun 16 $1 −$6 -800%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 17? Jun 16 $0 −$8 -1662%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 23? Jun 16 $1 −$7 -1191%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ma Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 18? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$3 -510%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 22? Jun 16 $6 −$7 -115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$4 -620%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 20? Jun 16 $0 −$4 -948%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 18? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 19? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 20? Jun 16 $1 −$3 -669%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 18? Jun 16 $1 −$7 -1059%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 20? Jun 16 $1 −$4 -602%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 29m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 36m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 53m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.54 · official $83.65 · 3500 history records