Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91f…5ffe other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-20%) realized −$116 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$24
sports 23% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 30% 30% -18.5%
≤30d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 30% 30% -18.5%
≤90d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 30% 30% -18.5%
all 10 -33.3% -39.7% 30% 30% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 30% -18.5%
10% -45.4% 20% -26.3%
15% -50.7% 20% -33.4%
20% -55.5% 20% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 −$28 -92%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$58 +115%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$42 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 42m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 43m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 38¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $113 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $109 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $113 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 10h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 26h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.29 · official $152.29 (match) · 20 history records