Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A9 0xa91f…5857 sports 4 markets active 11h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$259 (+61%) realized +$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$285
other 7% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +44.5%
≤30d 4 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +44.5%
≤90d 4 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +44.5%
all 4 +33.8% +21.1% 75% 75% +44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.1% 75% +44.5%
10% +9.5% 75% +30.7%
15% -1.1% 75% +18.1%
20% -10.8% 75% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$30 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.49 per $1 lost it wins $9.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$82 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $198 +$103 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $99 +$99 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $181 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $99 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $301 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $198 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $198 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records