Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa91e…09e0 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (160 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11,950 (+5%) realized +$11,975 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$12,117per market
Trades / day160.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,847
7 days+$5,141
14 days+$6,164
30 days+$11,072
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$11,047
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (160 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +24.5% +12.6% 100% 33% +1.0%
≤30d 17 +18.1% +6.9% 65% 29% -5.0%
≤90d 17 +18.1% +6.9% 65% 29% -5.0%
all 17 +18.1% +6.9% 65% 29% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover160.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 29% -5.0%
10% -3.4% 18% -14.1%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 18% -22.4%
20% -21.3% 18% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$10,725) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
80.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,107 vs −$184 · ×6.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.02 per $1 lost it wins $11.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$11,975
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$12,117
Trades / day160.1
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $230 $206 −$24 (-10%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 27 $5,720 +$3,847 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $3,075 +$82 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $35,285 +$1,212 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,380 −$186 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26,523 −$625 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $116,542 +$1,834 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $12,643 −$34 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4,405 −$92 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10,725 +$539 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $47 +$26 +54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $180 −$5 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $8,855 +$300 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $1,004 −$162 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $138 +$16 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,624 +$4,318 +266%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 36m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 41m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $83 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $39 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $39 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $46 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.18 · official $219.18 (match) · 3500 history records