Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A9 0xa91b…49f4 other 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$148 (-19%) realized −$147 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day13.4pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+14.0%	+3.1%	52%	43%	-19.3%
≤30d	21	+14.0%	+3.1%	52%	43%	-19.3%
≤90d	21	+14.0%	+3.1%	52%	43%	-19.3%
all	21	+14.0%	+3.1%	52%	43%	-19.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.1%	43%	-19.3%
10%	-6.7%	38%	-27.0%
15%	-15.7%	38%	-34.0%
20%	-24.0%	33%	-40.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +49% → late -18% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$36 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$9

Realized−$147

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage4d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day13.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	45¢	40¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$8	+42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$141	−$140	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$101	−$82	-81%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$80	−$80	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$46	+$32	+70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$1	+10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	$0	-1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$26	+168%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$120	+$11	+9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$124	+$79	+64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$15	−$15	-99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$12	+$16	+128%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$5	+$20	+388%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$5	+$6	+114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$7	+$13	+188%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 11	$20	−$20	-99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$25	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	SELL Over	10¢	$12	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	SELL Over	12¢	$6	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	18¢	$10	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$30	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$51	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	89¢	$50	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$50	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$15	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$0	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$10	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	14¢	$2	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	68¢	$5	2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$5	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	23¢	$5	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	52¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$20	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	92¢	$30	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$20	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	91¢	$30	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	85¢	$8	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	54¢	$13	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.00 · official $9.00 (match) · 62 history records