Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa919…3e47 crypto 479 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$153 (-5%) realized −$151 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%326W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$191
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 344 -3.1% -12.3% 76% 45% -12.0%
all 478 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 46% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 46% -15.0%
10% -20.6% 32% -23.2%
15% -28.3% 21% -30.6%
20% -35.3% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses326 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)478 / 479
History coverage118d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 24 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 24 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 23 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.82 · official $46.82 (match) · 1000 history records