Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa917…617b crypto 653 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-7%) realized −$132 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%376W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$90
14 days−$90
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$224
sports 2% −$9
other 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -11.0% -19.5% 59% 45% -21.8%
≤30d 534 -7.9% -16.7% 60% 45% -19.8%
≤90d 650 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 43% -20.8%
all 650 -9.3% -17.9% 58% 43% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 43% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 30% -28.4%
15% -32.9% 20% -35.3%
20% -39.5% 13% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses376 / 274
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)650 / 653
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner InterActive Philippines 37¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 51¢ 4¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$17 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 19m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 36¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 23m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 39¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $17 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.36 · official $6.85 (match) · 1597 history records