Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa912…c597 sports 647 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$176 (-4%) realized −$177 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%418W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$11
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$178
other 1% +$7
weather 1% −$27
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.7% -15.6% 72% 56% +2.2%
≤30d 70 -10.1% -18.6% 64% 47% -7.8%
≤90d 200 -14.3% -22.5% 64% 32% -13.0%
all 645 -9.3% -17.9% 65% 33% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -13.2%
10% -25.8% 20% -21.5%
15% -33.0% 14% -29.1%
20% -39.5% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses418 / 227
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)645 / 647
History coverage248d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 95¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 81¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 +$2 +44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$1 -35%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 $0 +3%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $5 +$1 +21%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 $0 +17%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2 $0 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 26 $3 +$1 +27%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 26 $1 $0 +42%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 26 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 3 Winner May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $6 −$3 -43%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner May 24 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 99¢ $8 43m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 81¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 89¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $2 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 85¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 86¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 87¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 50¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 59¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 93¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $4 19h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $2 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 97¢ $5 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 93¢ $5 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 87¢ $1 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 84¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.99 · official $17.99 (match) · 1453 history records