Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A9 0xa910…1ece crypto 364 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,167 (-8%) realized −$3,106 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate80%292W / 71L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$111
14 days−$52
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,970
other 7% −$130
sports 3% +$140
politics 2% −$671
world 0% −$70
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +8.7% -1.7% 61% 43% -20.3%
≤30d 193 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 7% -10.5%
≤90d 363 -7.3% -16.2% 80% 16% -17.5%
all 363 -7.3% -16.2% 80% 16% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 16% -17.5%
10% -24.2% 9% -25.4%
15% -31.5% 8% -32.6%
20% -38.2% 6% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$97 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$3,106
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses292 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)363 / 364
History coverage58d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 363 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Up 65¢ 98¢ $123 $186 +$63 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Down 67¢ 2¢ $62 $1 −$61 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $91 −$48 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $79 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET Jun 19 $121 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Jun 19 $135 −$67 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $63 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$9 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$2 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $100 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $58 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $62 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $69 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $41 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.20 · official $187.20 (match) · 820 history records