Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa90c…17b6
world · 14 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$639 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$531 · open −$108
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$371
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage80d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$457
14 days−$444
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? No 93¢ 72¢ $479 $371 −$108 (-23%)
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? No 96¢ $451 $0 −$451 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage MINLATE 47¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Al Okhdood SC $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $482 $0 +0%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 10 $452 −$451 -100%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $458 −$6 -1%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $466 +$14 +3%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 01 $466 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $8 $0 -3%
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) Apr 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $44 $0 +0%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 21 $396 +$18 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $394 +$2 +0%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 20 $365 +$23 +6%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $358 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Mar 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% −$4
other 31% −$561
sports 30% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 93¢ $480 1h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $482 2h
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $482 3h
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY No 96¢ $452 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $453 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $458 3d
Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Fukushima United FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $466 12d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $464 12d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $466 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 20d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $20 44d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $16 44d
Spread: Al Okhdood SC (-1.5) BUY Al Okhdood SC $4 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $20 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $23 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 44d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 44d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $301 54d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $96 54d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $396 54d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $394 54d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Antalyaspor 94¢ $365 56d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 99¢ $358 57d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $358 57d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY MINLATE 47¢ $38 79d
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G BUY MINLATE 47¢ $52 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.8% -40.1% 0% 0% -39.2%
≤30d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 0% -26.8%
≤90d 13 -22.3% -29.7% 38% 0% -21.5%
all 13 -22.3% -29.7% 38% 0% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 0% -21.5%
10% -36.4% 0% -29.0%
15% -42.6% 0% -35.9%
20% -48.2% 0% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.80 · official $370.80 (match) · 33 history records