Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A9 0xa90b…475c world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$2
other 13% $0
sports 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage487d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $11 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 19 $9 −$1 -6%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $11 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $24 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $16 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records