Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A9
0xa907…ba96
weather · 915 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$8,191 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,329 · open +$138
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22,918
Realized−$8,329
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses754 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions106
Markets (closed)882 / 915
History coverage15d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day177.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 106 History 882 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,731
7 days−$9,114
14 days−$8,432
30 days−$8,329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,936 $4,965 +$29 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,280 $3,297 +$17 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,133 $2,157 +$23 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,639 $1,650 +$11 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,549 $1,561 +$12 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,274 $1,290 +$16 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,154 $1,162 +$8 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $875 $881 +$6 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $588 $591 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $444 $446 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $431 $433 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $427 $430 +$3 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $396 $403 +$8 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $370 $372 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $352 $354 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $346 $349 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $246 $247 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $237 $238 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $186 $187 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $172 $174 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C or below on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $166 $168 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 99¢ 98¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $131 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 12 $787 −$787 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 4? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 4? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 12 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 10? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on May 2? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 7? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on May 3? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 5? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on May 3? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on April 29? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12? Jun 12 $573 −$573 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 28? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 16? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 1? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 1? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 2? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 5? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 2? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 15? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 3? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 20? Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 27? Jun 12 $1,556 −$1,556 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $6 23m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $4 23m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $134 28m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $11 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $21 32m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 33m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 50¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $532 42m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 54¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 46m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $80 47m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $29 49m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $196 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $556 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $368 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $260 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 336 -20.2% -27.8% 76% 5% -17.8%
≤30d 882 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 20% -12.9%
≤90d 882 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 20% -12.9%
all 882 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 20% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover177.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 20% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 13% -21.3%
15% -26.3% 6% -28.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,918.45 · official $22,917.36 (match) · 3500 history records