Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A9 0xa906…11ae other 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 68L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$6
world 31% −$3
sports 12% −$1
politics 6% −$3
finance 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 17 -2.1% -11.4% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 4% -9.5%
all 96 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage467d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $169 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $225 +$12 +5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $141 +$7 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $135 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $6 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $135 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $603 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $61 −$22 -36%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $230 +$1 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $123 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $29 +$4 +14%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $92 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,129 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2,261 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $1,129 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $232 −$2 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jan 02 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 29 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $13 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in September? Sep 11 $1 $0 -30%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $28 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high before 2026? Aug 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 13 $14 $0 -1%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 11 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $125 6m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $169 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $169 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $169 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $95 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $86 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $86 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $147 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $147 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $83 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $66 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $141 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $116 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $26 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $136 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $123 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $149 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.12 · official $43.09 · 313 history records