Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A9 0xa902…4bca other 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$234per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$974

7 days+$1,532

14 days+$1,498

30 days+$1,498

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)+15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+67.4%	+51.4%	90%	80%	+44.6%
≤30d	18	+27.7%	+15.5%	67%	61%	+31.7%
≤90d	18	+27.7%	+15.5%	67%	61%	+31.7%
all	18	+27.7%	+15.5%	67%	61%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.5%	61%	+31.7%
10%	+4.4%	56%	+19.1%
15%	-5.6%	50%	+7.6%
20%	-14.9%	39%	-2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +64% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$163 vs −$76 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.28 per $1 lost it wins $4.28

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$756

Realized−$12

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 22

History coverage8d

Avg bet$234

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	54¢	$584	$579	−$5 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$193	$177	−$16 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$471	+$254	+54%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	Jun 24	$286	+$109	+38%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$30	−$29	-97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$17	+$6	+33%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$102	+$340	+335%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$265	+$272	+103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$455	+$22	+5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$441	+$320	+73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$401	+$149	+37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$96	+$89	+94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$120	−$117	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$153	+$211	+138%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$39	+$4	+11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$108	−$106	-98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$133	−$130	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$102	+$179	+175%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal?	Jun 16	$29	−$28	-97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$48	−$47	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$94	26m
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	6¢	$198	28m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$498	35m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	67¢	$597	37m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	36¢	$330	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	35¢	$129	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	SELL Yes	16¢	$395	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$141	1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	SELL Yes	5¢	$140	1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada?	BUY Yes	11¢	$286	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	53¢	$287	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$295	15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany?	BUY Yes	6¢	$178	15h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	SELL Yes	0¢	$1	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	SELL Yes	4¢	$23	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	SELL Yes	69¢	$441	22h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	15¢	$102	24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	7¢	$30	24h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	3¢	$17	24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	74¢	$537	24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL	68¢	$477	26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	63¢	$455	38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	35¢	$265	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	51¢	$294	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY	57¢	$441	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL	82¢	$550	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	75¢	$185	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	38¢	$96	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	59¢	$401	4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	29¢	$120	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $755.51 · official $755.51 (match) · 43 history records