Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A8 0xa8fa…5ddf weather 711 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$282 (+1%) realized +$243 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%673W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$148
14 days+$221
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 676 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 676 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.0%
all 676 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×93.99 per $1 lost it wins $93.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$4,534
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses673 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions35
Markets (closed)676 / 711
History coverage23d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 676 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? No 96¢ 100¢ $633 $659 +$26 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $629 $629 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $490 $490 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $490 $490 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $280 $280 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? No 96¢ 100¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $246 $246 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $239 $239 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 95¢ 99¢ $123 $129 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? No 92¢ 89¢ $79 $76 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? No 93¢ 90¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $270 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $155 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $270 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 1 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $630 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 16? Jun 17 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $133 +$11 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $490 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $130 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $79 0m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $56 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 44m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 57m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $629 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $124 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $239 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $299 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $280 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $246 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $73 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $490 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $490 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $251 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,534.44 · official $4,534.22 (match) · 1449 history records