Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f7…8d06 sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%25W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$10
other 27% −$6
politics 18% −$3
economics 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$3
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 37 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 231 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses25 / 206
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage168d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 96¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 28 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $42 $0 -1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $34 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $40 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $39 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 26 $35 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $76 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 25 $133 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $72 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $49 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $98 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $47 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 11d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $36 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $36 19d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $43 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 32d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 94¢ $42 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $14 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $28 78d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 78d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 78d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $39 78d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $21 78d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $18 78d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 96¢ $42 78d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 96¢ $42 78d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $40 78d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $40 79d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 79d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 79d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $34 79d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $34 79d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $31 79d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $31 79d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $37 79d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $37 80d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $1 80d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $1 80d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $42 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.01 · official $33.01 (match) · 814 history records