Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f6…7f8e crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$40
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 20% -21.2%
≤30d 69 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 20% -21.2%
≤90d 69 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 20% -21.2%
all 69 -19.4% -27.1% 39% 20% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 20% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 7% -28.7%
15% -40.4% 3% -35.6%
20% -46.3% 3% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -13%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$3 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records