Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A8 0xa8f5…76d3 crypto 457 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,089 (-10%) realized −$2,094 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%190W / 266L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days−$1,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,344
other 1% +$41
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.2% -22.3% 45% 45% +0.3%
≤30d 263 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 39% -23.9%
≤90d 263 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 39% -23.9%
all 456 -6.7% -15.6% 42% 38% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 38% -20.0%
10% -23.6% 35% -27.7%
15% -31.0% 31% -34.7%
20% -37.8% 29% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$2,094
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses190 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)456 / 457
History coverage163d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 456 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 214 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$46 +180%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $460 −$460 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $318 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$43 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $53 −$33 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $554 +$523 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $279 +$275 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 01 $831 −$831 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $301 −$289 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 01 $169 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $88 −$86 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 01 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $8 +$9 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 31 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 31 $34 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $5 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 47h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $46 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $318 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $29 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.47 · official $25.47 (match) · 1026 history records